This week, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber showed a fluctuating rise. The average price of the natural rubber market remained at around 9,380 yuan/ton on Monday, and was raised to 9,600 yuan/ton on the weekend, with an overall increase of 2.34%. This week, natural rubber merchants have been relatively active in their shipments. The overall market atmosphere of natural rubber is relatively good, and the transaction situation is relatively ideal. The transaction atmosphere has an upward trend compared with last week.
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Analysis of the reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices
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The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
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1. Macroscopically, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the existing quantitative easing (QE) program will be extended for seven months until March 2017, and the monthly asset purchases will remain unchanged at 60 billion euros. The easing degree of the new policy was obviously less than expected, the euro rose in a straight line, and the exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new high since early November; domestically, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose slightly to a four-month high in October, driven by new export orders. The index returned to above 50, and the new orders index and output index both hit four-month highs, indicating that the slowdown in the manufacturing industry has slowed down as the growth stabilization policy has taken effect. At present, the price of natural rubber is supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of natural rubber have risen slightly.
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2. In terms of market, the state-owned whole milk of Yunnan in Shanghai area was about 9,400 yuan/ton in 2013, up 100 yuan/ton; Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 9,400 yuan/ton in 2013, up 100 yuan/ton; Milk is about 9,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the private latex price in Yunnan in 2014 is about 9,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton.
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3. In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 4, the natural rubber futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 450 tons compared with last week. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were reported at 121,540 tons. Among them, Shanghai decreased by 30, Shandong decreased by 20, Yunnan increased by 100, Hainan decreased by 350, and Tianjin decreased by 150.
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Fourth, in terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires this week was 62.88%, down 0.80% from last week; the operating rate of domestic tire companies' semi-steel tires was 67.54%, down 0.31% from last week. The market demand for all-steel tires is insufficient, and the start of construction has remained basically stable. Recently, orders for semi-steel tires have increased, and some manufacturers have increased their start-up. However, from a year-on-year perspective, the current operating rate is still lower than the same period last year. According to the practice of previous years, after entering December, the operating rate of tire enterprises will decrease rapidly, reaching the lowest level in the Lunar New Year.
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Market outlook forecast: This website analyzes the preliminary forecast and maintains the judgment of the fluctuation between the Hujiao market. Overall, the Fed's December rate hike expectations have re-enhanced, increasing market risks. Although the domestic production areas have gradually entered the cut-off period in November, the rubber-producing countries in Southeast Asia are still in the high-yielding season, so the reduction in production caused by the domestic cut-off is difficult to make a significant change in the global total. However, the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still rising. With the increase in arrivals in the later period, the port inventory tends to rise. At the same time, the exchange inventory has increased unabated, and the supply pressure is still relatively large. In addition, the sluggish sales of terminal heavy trucks has not changed, and the tire industry is facing a situation of insufficient domestic demand and external demand being hindered. In an environment where the fundamentals of supply and demand are bearish, the pressure on the Hujiao market is still relatively large. From a comprehensive perspective, Hujiao may maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term.